基于弹性系数法的PPP项目建设期调价机制优化--以污水垃圾处理类项目为例

逮元堂等：基于弹性系数法的ppp项目建设期调价机制优化・167・基于弹性系数法的PPP项目建设期调价机制优化——以污水垃圾处理类项目为例逮元堂，刘双柳，徐顺青，陈鹏，高军（生态环境部环境规划院环境PPP中心，北京100012）摘要：污水垃圾处理类PPP项目大多需要政府提供一定的价格补贴，当总投资发生较大变化时，将影响PPP合同价格的合理性，目前大部分项目未对此进行调价设计或是采用的调价方式过于复杂、可操作性差。文章以总投资变动幅度、初始补贴单价及其覆盖建设成本的比例为基础，建立基于弹性系数法的建设期调价模型，以财政部PPP中心项目库污水、垃圾处理项目为例开展实证研究。总投资变动幅度在10%以内时，预测值与实际值平均偏差幅度分别为0.75%和1.98%。模型预测精确度相对较高，操作简单方便，有一定的实用价值，可以为污水垃圾处理PPP项目建设期调价问题提供新的解决思路和方法。模型应用范围可进一步推广至采用处理单价和处理量计费的供水、燃气等领域。关键词：污水垃圾处理；PPP项目；建设期；调价模型；弹性系数法中图分类号：F285文献标识码：A文章编号：1671-4407（2019）08-167-04StudyonPricingMechanismofPPPProjectsBasedonElasticCoefficientMethod:TakingSewageandWasteDisposalProjectsastheExampleLUYuantang,LIUShuangliu,XUShunqing,CHENPeng,GAOJun(EnvironmentalPPPCenter,ChineseAcademyforEnvironmentalPlanning,Beijing100012,China)Abstract:MostPPPprojectsofsewageandwastedisposalrequirethegovernmenttoprovidecertainpricesubsidies.Whenthetotalinvestmentchangesgreatly,theinitialsubsidypricewillbegreatlyaffected.However,mostoftheprojectsdidn'tcarryoutpriceadjustmentdesignforconstructionstageoradoptingpriceadjustmentmethodistoocomplex,pooroperability.Basedontheinitialsubsidyunitprice,theproportioncoveringtheconstructioncostandthevariationrangeofthetotalinvestment,thisstudyestablishestheconstructionperiodpricingmodelbasedontheelasticcoefficientmethod.TakingthebackgrounddataofasewagetreatmentprojectandawastedisposalprojectintheprojectlibraryofChinaPublicPrivatePartnershipsCenterasexamples,theempiricalstudywascarriedout.Theresultsshowthattheaveragedeviationbetweenthepredictedvalueandtheactualvaluewas0.75%and1.98%,respectively,whenthechangerangeofthetotalinvestmentislessthan10%.Thepredictionaccuracyofthemodelisrelativelyhigh,theoperationissimpleandconvenient,andhascertainpracticalvalue,whichcanprovidenewideasandmethodsforsolvingthepriceadjustmentproblemintheconstructionperiod.Theapplicationscopeofthemodelcanbefurtherextendedtowatersupplyandgas,whicharechargedbyhandlingunitpriceandcapacity.Keywords:sewageandwastedisposal;PPPprojects;constructionperiod;pricingmodel;e