气候变化与太湖蓝藻暴发的关系

气候变化与太湖蓝藻暴发的关系*商兆堂**任健秦铭荣夏瑛何浪陈钰文(江苏省气象局,南京210008)摘要对太湖区域40多年来气温、降水量、日照时数随时间变化的特征进行了分析,并对太湖蓝藻的爆发时间、次数、等级进行了统计,采用对比分析法对气候变化与太湖蓝藻暴发的关系进行了分析。结果表明:太湖区域1961)2007年总的气候倾向率,年平均气温为0135e#10a-1,年累计降水量为31133mm#10a-1,年累计日照时数为-69100h#10a-1;而突变点,气温在1989年,降水量在1979年,日照时数在1999年,在突变点年份后,气温升高、降水量增加和日照时数减少的趋势更加明显。2000)2007年气候变得异常,主要表现为气温上升速度加快,约为1961)2007年的317倍,5月和10月的这种气候倾向性更明显;降水量减少,比1961)2007年减少了178110mm#10a-1,日照时数增加,比1961)2007年增加了244123h#10a-1。气候变暖速度加快为太湖蓝藻的生长发育提供了热量条件;降水量减少,加速了太湖水质恶化,为蓝藻暴发提供了有利的水质环境条件;日照时数增多,充足的光照为蓝藻生长发育提供了优良的光合条件;温度偏高、降水量偏少、日照时数偏多的气候变化趋势对应太湖蓝藻暴发的次数也偏多,造成了太湖蓝藻暴发现象越来越严重。关键词气候变化;蓝藻;太湖中图分类号X145文献标识码A文章编号1000-4890(2010)1-0055-07RelationshipsbetweenclimaticchangeandcyanobacterialbloominTaihuLake.SHANGZhao-tang,RENJian,QINMing-rong,XIAYing,HELang,CHENYu-wen(JiangsuMeteoro-logicalBureau,Nanjing210008,China).ChineseJournalofEcology,2010,29(1):55-61.Abstract:Basedontheanalysisofthevariationsinairtemperature,precipitation,andsunshinehourinlast40yearsinTaihuLakeregion,astatisticalanalysiswasmadeontherelationshipsbe-tweentheclimaticchangeandtheoccurrencetime,frequency,andgradeofcyanobacterialbloominTaihuLake.Inthestudyregion,theoverallclimatechangetrendfrom1961to2007wasthatthemeanannualairtemperatureincreasedby0135e#10a-1,annualtotalprecipitationin-creasedby31133mm#10a-1,andannualtotalsunshinedurationdecreasedby69100h#10a-1.Theturningpointsofthevariationsinairtemperature,precipitation,andsunshinehourwerein1989,1979,and1999,respectively.In2000-2007,theclimatechangedexceptionally,whichwasmainlymanifestedintherapidincreaseofairtemperature(about317timesofthatin1961-2007andmoreobviouslyinMayandOctober),thedecreaseofprecipitat-ion(about178110mm#10a-1lessthanthatin1961-2007),andtheincreaseofsunshinehour(244123h#10a-1morethanthatin1961-2007).Theincreasingspeedofclimatewarmingprovidedthermaladvantagesforcyanobacteriagrowth,andthedecreasingprecipitationworsenedthewaterqualityandmadethecyanobacterialbloomoccurredmorequickly.Theincreasingsun-shineprovidedampleilluminationtocyanobacteriagro