基于二维湖泊藻类模型的洪泽湖藻类空间动态模拟

中国环境科学2015，35(10)：3090-3100ChinaEnvironmentalScience基于二维湖泊藻类模型的洪泽湖藻类空间动态模拟齐凌艳，一，黄佳聪，高俊峰，周毅，田威(1．中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所，流域地理学重点实验室，江苏南京210008；2．中国科学院大学，北京100049；3．江苏省水文水资源勘测局，江苏南京210029)摘要：将洪泽湖分为北、东、西3区，基于二维湖泊藻类模型构建洪泽湖藻类空间动态模型．利用水文、气象、水质数据初始化模型、设定边界条件，并用2012年逐月叶绿素a实测浓度校正模型参数，模拟出洪泽湖2012年叶绿素a浓度连续变化过程．从时间维度看，叶绿素a浓度变化多呈“双峰型”趋势，分别在4月和8月左右出现峰值；湖心和出湖口站点呈单峰型或无明显峰值；颜圩站点出现多个浓度峰值．从空间维度看，西区叶绿素a平均浓度最低且空间差异不明显；北区因湖水流动性差，浓度分布均匀，且靠近湖岸地区浓度较高；东区叶绿素a浓度受过水通道影响较大，空间差异显著．虽然受大型浅水湖泊模拟不确定性等因素影响，个别点位模拟误差偏高，但不会影响整体分析结果，模拟结果具有较高可信度．关键词：湖泊藻类模型；洪泽湖；藻类；二维；模拟中图分类号：X524文献标识码：A文章编号：1000—6923(2015)10—3090—11Spatial-temporalmodenngofphytoplanktoninLakeHongzeusinga2-Dhydrodynamic-phytoplanktonmode1．QILing-yan，，HUANGJia．cong，GAOJun—feng，ZHOUYi。，TIANWei(1．KeyLaboratoryofWatershedGeographicSciences，NanjingInstituteofGeographyandLimnology,ChineseAcademyofSciences，Nanjing210008，China：2．UniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences，Beijing100049，China．3．JiangsuProvinceHydrologyandWaterResourcesInvestigationBureau，Nanjing210029，China)．ChinaEnvironmentalScience，2015，35(10)：3090-3100Abstract：ThedynamicsofalgaebiomassdistributioninLakeHongzewassimulatedusingatwo—dimensionalhydrodynamic-phytoplanktonmode1．LakeHongzewasdividedintothreezones，i．e．，no,hemzone，easternzoneandwesternzone．Chlorophylla(Chla1wasusedtorepresentalgalbiomassinLakeHongze．Theinitialandboundarydataforthehydrodynamic-phytoplanktonmodelincludedhydrological，meteorologicalandwaterqualitydata．ThespatialdistributionofChla，nitrogenandphosphorusconcentrationsinJanuarywasusedastheinitialdata．TheboundarydataincludeddailywaterflOW,temperatureandprecipitation．Tenmostsensitiveparameters(e．g．，maximumgrowthrateofphytoplankton)wereidentifiedbasedonsensitivityanalysis，andwasoptimizedbasedonthevaluerangesfrompreviousstudy．ThecalibrationresultsshowedgoodagreementbetweenmeasuredandsimulatedChla(产0．281，RMSE2．52~egL)．Basedonthecalibratedmodel，thedynamicsofChladistributioninLakeHongzeduring2012weresimulated．ThesimulationresultsgenerallyshowedtwoChlapeaksinAprilandAugust．However,simula