两阶段评估体系筛选水源突发污染应急最优技术方案

中国环境科学2015，35(10)：3193-3200ChinaEnvironmentalScience两阶段评估体系筛选水源突发污染应急最优技术方案曲建华，孟宪林，，尤宏，(1．哈尔滨工业大学市政环境工程学院，黑龙江哈尔滨150090；2．哈尔滨工业大学城市水资源与水环境国家重点实验室，黑龙江哈尔滨150090)摘要：为预判突发污染对水源的威胁程度，进而筛选适宜污染情景的最优应急处置技术，本研究构建了包含10个评价指标的水源突发污染威胁度判别指标体系，依据威胁度等级判定，确定与不同威胁度对应的应急处置技术评估指标体系的指标权重．同时，为合理体现群决策过程中专家差异对权重的影响，提出了基于循环修正的群组G1指标赋权法．以Spearman等级相关系数作为检验标准，应用平均值法、Board法、Copeland法3种组合评价方法对单一专家评价结果进行循环迭代修正，最终得到评价指标的一致性排序和各位专家的权重。使各项指标的权重赋值更为准确．将综合评估模型应用于2012年广西龙江镉污染事故中．成功筛选出“调水稀释一絮凝沉降一水厂强化混凝”的组合应急技术方案，同实际情况吻合，验证了评估模型的可行性．关键词：威胁度判定；饮用水源地；循环修正；群组G1；应急处置技术中图分类号：X522文献标识码：A文章编号：1O00—6923f2O15)l0—3193—08Atwo-stageevaluationsystemtoidentifyoptimumemergencydisposaltechnologyschemesofsuddenwatersourcepollutions．QUJian-hua，MENGXian-lin，，YOUHong'(1．SchoolofMunicipalandEnvironmentalEngineering，HarbinInstituteofTechnology，Harbin150090，China；2．StateKeyLaboratoryofUrbanWaterResourcesandEnvironment，HarbinInstituteofTechnology，Harbin150090，China)．ChinaEnvironmentalScience，2015，35(10)：3l93-3200Abstract：Inordertopredictthethreatlevelofsuddenpollutiononwatersourceforobtainingtheoptimumemergencydisposaltechnologyscheme，thethreat-evaluationindexsystemwith10evaluationindexesisestablishedinthisstudy．Theweightsoftheevaluationindicatorsaredemrminedinaccordancetocorrespondingthreatlevels．Besides，Group-G1indexweightingmethodbasedoncirclingcorrectionisputforwardforreflectingtheinfluenceofdifferencesamongexpertsonindexweightsingroupdecisionmaking．WithSpearmanrankcorrelationcoeficientasthetestcriterion．theconsensusrankingofevaluationindexandexperts’weightsarefinallyobtainedthroughaniterativecorrectionofonefoldexpertevaluationresultswiththecombinedevaluationmethodsintegratingmeanvaluemethod，BoardmethodandCopelandmethod，SOthattheindexesaremoreaccurate．Inaddition，thefeasibilityofthissyntheticevaluationmodelhasbeenverifiedthroughasuddencadmiumpollutionincidentthatoccuredintheLongRiverin2O12．Keywords：threatevaluation；drinkingwaterSOurCe；circulation-corection；Group—G1；emergencydisposaltechnology水源地因关系到饮用水水质安全问题，故其具有社会敏感性，一旦遭受污