中部农村规模养殖生态系统管理策略的系统动力学仿真分析

2007年12月系统工程理论与实践第12期文章编号:100026788(2007)1220158212中部农村规模养殖生态系统管理策略的系统动力学仿真分析王翠霞1,2,贾仁安1,邓群钊1(11南昌大学系统工程研究所,南昌330031;21江西财经大学信息管理学院,南昌330013)摘要:农村规模养殖生态系统是一个由养殖业、种植业、能源、环境和管理构成的复杂系统,对养殖废弃物的有效管理是该系统安全与可持续发展的保障.以地处中国中部的江西省萍乡地区兰坡村规模养殖生态系统为例,基于系统动力学反馈仿真分析理论,运用相应的主导基模,分别对2002～2015年系统实施沼气能源利用、沼液与灌溉水分流、冬闲田与旱地沼液蔬菜种植三项策略工程后的系统状况进行情景仿真,定量论证实施三项策略工程的必要性及其产生的经济、生态效益.模拟结果同时揭示出系统内土地等自然资源的有限,导致以循环利用为前提的养殖废弃物污染治理能力有限,因此建议农村规模养殖控制适度的发展规模.三项策略工程已付诸实施,对系统内规模养殖二次污染的治理已见成效.关键词:规模生猪养殖;管理策略;系统动力学;主导基模;仿真分析中图分类号:S11+7文献标志码:AASystemDynamicsSimulationAnalysisontheManagementPolicyofRuralScaleLivestockBreedingEcosysteminCentreChinaWANGCui2xia1,2,JIARen2an1,DENGQun2zhao1(11InstituteofSystemsEngineering,NanchangUniversity,Nanchang330031,China;21SchoolofInformation&Management,JiangxiUniversityofFinance&Economics,Nanchang330013,China)Abstract:Theruralscalelivestockbreedingecosystemisacomplexsystemcomposedofbreedingsubsystem,plantingsubsystem,energysourcessubsystem,environmentsubsystemandmanagementsubsystem.Theavailabilityoftheresiduestreatmentistheguaranteeofthesecurityandsustainabledevelopmentoftheecosystem.AcaseoftheLanPoscalepigbreedingecosystem,locatedinPingxiangRegion,Jiangxiprovince,CentreChina,isstudiedbasedonthesystemdynamicsfeedbackandsimulationanalysistheory.Withthecorrespondingdominantarchetype,thescenariosbetweenyears2002to2015ofthesystemactualizingthethreeitemsofstrategicengineeringaresimulatedindividuallytoprovetheeconomicandecologicalbenefitofgovernment’sinvestmentandscientificinstitution’stechnologysupporting.Thethreeitemsofstrategicengineeringarebiogasutilizationengineering,separatinganaerobicdigestereffluentfromirrigatingwaterengineering,thewinterfallowcroplandandthehillylanddevelopedengineering.Thesimulationresultshavealsoexposedthatforthelimitationofphysicsresource,thecapacityforrecycleutilizingthebreedingresiduesislimited,sowesuggestedthatthescaleofbreedingshouldbecontrolled.Thethreeitemsofstrategicengineeringareimplemented,anditsadvantagestofatherthesecondpollutionoflivestock